Anticipating risk

Common sense

Past experience

Historical data

Tools and aids

Independent assessors

Analogues

Creative thinking


Categories of risk

Business User acceptance Technical Implementation External

The human factor

Studies show that people are a major source of risk, and the least predictable

Consider


The laws

Gilb's laws of computer reliability, Law #1

Computers are unreliable, but humans are even more unreliable

Gilb's laws of computer reliability, Law #9

Investment in reliability will increase until:

Finagles law

Once a job is fouled up, anything done to improve it makes it worse

Coles law

Thinly sliced cabbage in mayonnaise


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